An Oracle of Oil Predicts $200-a-Barrel Crude

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Wednesday, August 20, 2008 5:48:30 AM

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An Oracle of Oil Predicts $200-a-Barrel Crude Wednesday, May 21, 2008
The New York Times -- Arjun N. Murti remembers the pain of the oil shocks of the 1970s. But he is bracing for something far worse now: He foresees a “super spike” — a price surge that will soon drive crude oil to $200 a barrel. Mr. Murti, who has a bit of a green streak, is not bothered much by the prospect of even higher oil prices, figuring it might finally prompt America to become more energy efficient. An analyst at Goldman Sachs, Mr. Murti has become the talk of the oil market by issuing one sensational forecast after another. A few years ago, rivals scoffed when he predicted oil would breach $100 a barrel. Few are laughing now. Oil shattered yet another record on Tuesday, touching $129.60 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas at $4 a gallon is arriving just in time for those long summer drives.
Visit The New York Times for full article

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	Wednesday, May 21, 2008 The New York Times -- Arjun N. Murti remembers the pain of the oil shocks of the 1970s. But he is bracing for something far worse now: He foresees a “super spike” — a price surge that will soon drive crude oil to $200 a barrel. Mr. Murti, who has a bit of a green streak, is not bothered much by the prospect of even higher oil prices, figuring it might finally prompt America to become more energy efficient. An analyst at Goldman Sachs, Mr. Murti has become the talk of the oil market by issuing one sensational forecast after another. A few years ago, rivals scoffed when he predicted oil would breach $100 a barrel. Few are laughing now. Oil shattered yet another record on Tuesday, touching $129.60 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas at $4 a gallon is arriving just in time for those long summer drives. Visit The New York Times for full article

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gasmiser83 Sophomore Author Georgia Posts:148 Points:93,155 Joined:Jul 2005	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:48:01 PM	Ignore gasmiser83 Report Abuse
	hopefully something will be done by then...
Gas_Buzzer Champion Author South Carolina Posts:5,963 Points:1,015,440 Joined:Sep 2005	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 12:46:29 PM	Ignore Gas_Buzzer Report Abuse
	maybe $150 but not $200
BBUSYBEE Rookie Author Toronto Posts:25 Points:3,320 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 11:03:39 AM	Ignore BBUSYBEE Report Abuse
	Can our government not stop these greedy Oil companies!
PenDoctrJD Champion Author Orange County Posts:2,953 Points:1,287,765 Joined:Aug 2001	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 9:54:35 AM	Ignore PenDoctrJD Report Abuse
	The sky is the limit
Cherokee76 Champion Author Gary Posts:3,795 Points:639,725 Joined:May 2004	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:54:59 AM	Ignore Cherokee76 Report Abuse
	Someone Please stop the madness. There is no reason for this, other than greed.
ramshot412 Champion Author Riverside Posts:11,185 Points:1,121,825 Joined:Apr 2004	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:49:54 AM	Ignore ramshot412 Report Abuse
	"So this guy is one of the few that predicted right in the past. His underlying aspirations are that the US gets so far in a bind that we are forced to switch to "greener" technology... in other words, he wants us to suffer economically because we don't presently hold up to his lofty ecological standards. Typical tree hugger." So, that means his prediction of $200 per barrel oil is all wrong???? I guess everything in your world is doing fine economically?
_angel35_ Sophomore Author Michigan Posts:194 Points:67,405 Joined:Aug 2005	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:49:49 AM	Ignore _angel35_ Report Abuse
	oracles, soothsayers, prophets...will become a self-fulfilling prophecy too, mark my words!
bell05 All-Star Author Atlanta Posts:700 Points:173,035 Joined:Jun 2005	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:49:02 AM	Ignore bell05 Report Abuse
	Surprise Surprise!
tomok Champion Author Portland Posts:7,775 Points:627,135 Joined:Aug 2006	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:48:22 AM	Ignore tomok Report Abuse
	OMG! Now it said on the news it went over $135 a barrel this morning. Its getting just a little closer to that $200.....
wark6 Sophomore Author Minnesota Posts:122 Points:532,540 Joined:Aug 2006	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:47:21 AM	Ignore wark6 Report Abuse
	What do you expect from a NY Times article!
CyanSquirrel All-Star Author Virginia Posts:533 Points:116,105 Joined:Jun 2004	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:45:32 AM	Ignore CyanSquirrel Report Abuse
	Old news...
t4204life Champion Author Ohio Posts:3,872 Points:772,035 Joined:Jun 2006	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:45:17 AM	Ignore t4204life Report Abuse
	guess 300/bar. is next.
Gerund1 All-Star Author Toronto Posts:792 Points:784,120 Joined:Apr 2003	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:44:40 AM	Ignore Gerund1 Report Abuse
	See, that the prediction thing again. It was predicted that oil would go up to $130, and we are just about there. These idiots are part of the problem.
danielson75 Rookie Author Connecticut Posts:4 Points:10,495 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:44:28 AM	Ignore danielson75 Report Abuse
	I'm sure we'll see $5/gallon by the summer... someplaces are almost there now! This is so sad.... my stomach hurts everytime I drive past a gas station!
CTDPower Veteran Author Virginia Beach Posts:488 Points:177,575 Joined:May 2007	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:44:08 AM	Ignore CTDPower Report Abuse
	I've said it before and i'll say it again... If these speculators are so damn smart, how come they are not all billionares off of energy futures? Wait, I had a vision! The number on my odometer will rise today!
RML1 All-Star Author Chicago Posts:825 Points:120,975 Joined:May 2007	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:44:06 AM	Ignore RML1 Report Abuse
	Who's taking long summer drives.
00GMC Rookie Author Austin Posts:28 Points:38,335 Joined:Nov 2007	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:42:33 AM	Ignore 00GMC Report Abuse
	So this guy is one of the few that predicted right in the past. His underlying aspirations are that the US gets so far in a bind that we are forced to switch to "greener" technology... in other words, he wants us to suffer economically because we don't presently hold up to his lofty ecological standards. Typical tree hugger.
Grantius Rookie Author South Carolina Posts:32 Points:36,690 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:42:11 AM	Ignore Grantius Report Abuse
	This is a response from Shell's CEO, OMG did I mention somebody from Big Oil, heaven forbid. But this guy has more sense that any of our lawmakers ever will. He states the root of the problem that will always be the problem, the government "In the United States, access to our own oil and gas resources has been limited for the last 30 years, prohibiting companies such as Shell from exploring and developing resources for the benefit of the American people. It is not a free market. According to the Department of the Interior, 62% of all on-shore federal lands are off limits to oil and gas developments, with restrictions applying to 92% of all federal lands. The Argonne National Laboratory did a report in 2004 that identified 40 specific federal policy areas that halt, limit, delay, or restrict natural gas projects. The problem of access can be solved in this country by the same government that has prohibited it. Congress could have chose to lift some or all of the current restrictions on exploration and production of oil and gas. Congress could provide national policy to reverse the persistent decline of domestically secure natural resource development" Basically sums most of our problems we are faced with today up right there
maggiemaen Sophomore Author Wisconsin Posts:211 Points:63,735 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:42:06 AM	Ignore maggiemaen Report Abuse
	Ridiculous!
preludemv Rookie Author Houston Posts:51 Points:3,550 Joined:Feb 2008	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:41:07 AM	Ignore preludemv Report Abuse
	I agree.....No more!!!
mmene Sophomore Author Houston Posts:125 Points:45,700 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:40:18 AM	Ignore mmene Report Abuse
	It is silly to imagine (like the Shell executive) that increasing oil supply is the only way to bring down oil prices. As every student of capitalism knows there are two levers affecting a price, supply and demand. We also need to figure out ways to manage our demand more effectively at the same time as looking to increase supply.
NissanGirl Sophomore Author Oregon Posts:193 Points:111,210 Joined:Jan 2008	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:38:05 AM	Ignore NissanGirl Report Abuse
	No more!!!
fairchildd All-Star Author Kansas City Posts:668 Points:279,660 Joined:Aug 2007	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:35:39 AM	Ignore fairchildd Report Abuse
	it's gotten to the place where the price rises because it can - it no longer needs any other reason
Dale Jr. Champion Author Iowa Posts:7,550 Points:1,519,975 Joined:May 2004	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:34:44 AM	Ignore Dale Jr. Report Abuse
	Keep talking Murti. Oil probably will get to $200.
doulosx All-Star Author Columbus Posts:735 Points:397,555 Joined:Sep 2005	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:34:02 AM	Ignore doulosx Report Abuse
	Not if we drill in ANWAR.
Chazzer Champion Author Nevada Posts:7,619 Points:1,639,135 Joined:May 2002	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:33:05 AM	Ignore Chazzer Report Abuse
	Yes, and I, for one, can't wait! Maybe then they will start drilling in the U.S. and build some more refineries. I saw this morning on the news some old fart demoncrat still insists the oil companies are the major problem. Quit pointing your freakin' fingers in every direction and do something!
Dennis783 Champion Author Wisconsin Posts:5,138 Points:1,030,970 Joined:Sep 2005	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:29:28 AM	Ignore Dennis783 Report Abuse
	I've said it before and will again... the more the talking heads predict things will get worse the more it makes it okay for the people controlling the prices to actually make it worse. This is bad
Somis1 Champion Author Ventura Posts:4,417 Points:983,800 Joined:Jul 2005	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:29:22 AM	Ignore Somis1 Report Abuse
	It won't stay there, because the economy will stop.
dyeh Veteran Author Illinois Posts:345 Points:102,925 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:27:35 AM	Ignore dyeh Report Abuse
	$200/barrel is nothing compared to what's going to eventually have to happen, if we don't innovate our way out of this mess while in the meantime curbing our demand for this stuff. There's only so much oil in the ground. We're going to run out, sooner or later. At the rate we're using it, sooner rather than later.
Don20 Champion Author Oklahoma City Posts:1,080 Points:923,290 Joined:Mar 2005	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:25:19 AM	Ignore Don20 Report Abuse
	So what?. the price at pump is not determend by the price of oil anymore. Its who can raise the price the most without causing an inquire
spc All-Star Author North Carolina Posts:620 Points:123,190 Joined:Aug 2005	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:19:06 AM	Ignore spc Report Abuse
	Doh! :-(
bicycler Champion Author Ontario Posts:5,582 Points:1,032,020 Joined:May 2005	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:18:54 AM	Ignore bicycler Report Abuse
	More doom & gloom which is like a cancer, it grows and grows until it becomes a living thing to which we all follow like sheep!
mvosevich All-Star Author St. Louis Posts:857 Points:179,950 Joined:Aug 2004	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:18:49 AM	Ignore mvosevich Report Abuse
	What drives a "super spike"?
glasgowboi25 Rookie Author Kentucky Posts:1 Points:1,160 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:17:26 AM	Ignore glasgowboi25 Report Abuse
	President Bush and both Houses needs to get off of their rears and take a stand for this country instead of worrying about Iraq. We are hurting here.
laddyboy62 Champion Author Riverside Posts:1,115 Points:902,360 Joined:Mar 2005	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:16:42 AM	Ignore laddyboy62 Report Abuse
	at 150$ a barrel..we are looking at 4.60 a gallon...so they say...imagine at 200$ a barrel...not good....
w4kh Champion Author Riverside Posts:3,280 Points:563,990 Joined:May 2004	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:16:25 AM	Ignore w4kh Report Abuse
	Eaglev and others, you have ALL been taken in by the BS of the Big Oil Buddies... They do NOT give a damn about either the environment nor the US market for oil... They want more oil so they can sell it in the GLOBAL Market that is the world of today. We have had "subsidized" oil and gas prices in the US for decades, but now India, CHina, and a host os developing economies are bidding for the world supply of oil... we are "addicted to oil", the one smart thing the White House Idiot has said about this situation. If we don't wake up and realize it is NOT a sin, it is NOT a crime to leave oil deposits in the ground and seek alternative (RENEWABLE) sources - like using solar panels to charge electric cars - we will be whining about $10/gallon gasoline. Big Oil wants to dril in ANWR and off-shore so they can sell the oil for $200/bbl in the GLOBAL MARKET! It won't make even ONE PENNY DIFFERENCE in the price of our gasoline at the pump! Wake up and smell the Bull Manure from Big Oil!
woos777 Champion Author Washington Posts:1,153 Points:579,155 Joined:Sep 2006	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:15:44 AM	Ignore woos777 Report Abuse
	We are only $65 away.
DooDaa Champion Author Massachusetts Posts:3,273 Points:732,730 Joined:Dec 2004	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:12:05 AM	Ignore DooDaa Report Abuse
	$$$
AC-302 Champion Author Los Angeles Posts:7,298 Points:1,224,405 Joined:Aug 2004	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:10:43 AM	Ignore AC-302 Report Abuse
	We really need to start expanding production here at home!
eaglev All-Star Author Oklahoma City Posts:582 Points:253,920 Joined:Jul 2005	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:05:11 AM	Ignore eaglev Report Abuse
	Please Read John Hofmeister, who is the CEO of Shell Oil Company in front of Congress. He spells out the true reason for our oil problems. HOFMEISTER: In the United States, access to our own oil and gas resources has been limited for the last 30 years, prohibiting companies such as Shell from exploring and developing resources for the benefit of the American people. It is not a free market. According to the Department of the Interior, 62% of all on-shore federal lands are off limits to oil and gas developments, with restrictions applying to 92% of all federal lands. The Argonne National Laboratory did a report in 2004 that identified 40 specific federal policy areas that halt, limit, delay, or restrict natural gas projects. The problem of access can be solved in this country by the same government that has prohibited it. Congress could have chose to lift some or all of the current restrictions on exploration and production of oil and gas. Congress could provide national policy to reverse the persistent decline of domestically secure natural resource development. There is simply no way to keep up -- let alone get ahead of demand -- except by producing more oil and building more refining capacity. That's because of the makeup of the barrel of crude. Only a third to a half of a barrel of crude oil can be used to make these products. We can't use more than half of a barrel of oil to make diesel and aviation fuel. To meet this demand we need more capacity. So we need policies that enable both more crude supply and more refining. Higher taxes would only serve to diminish the expansion capacity of this critical capital investment. I urge you on behalf of American consumers to resist such punitive policies.
Rageagainsttm Champion Author Tampa Posts:1,453 Points:341,445 Joined:Jul 2007	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:04:27 AM	Ignore Rageagainsttm Report Abuse
	rid dis yes ti day
Bity Veteran Author Wichita Posts:386 Points:45,355 Joined:Jan 2007	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:04:00 AM	Ignore Bity Report Abuse
	ericy, if we could figure out how to do without a car don't you think someone would have thought of that already?
RJ3D Champion Author Alabama Posts:5,554 Points:1,059,800 Joined:Mar 2005	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:02:28 AM	Ignore RJ3D Report Abuse
	Get an all electric car.
EXTREMESNOW All-Star Author Oregon Posts:711 Points:218,610 Joined:Jul 2006	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:02:09 AM	Ignore EXTREMESNOW Report Abuse
	I PREDICT GAS AT A NEW HIGH TOMORROW AS WELL, THINK I WILL BE RIGHT?
ladyjj All-Star Author Tennessee Posts:693 Points:68,935 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:01:56 AM	Ignore ladyjj Report Abuse
	We being held hostage by the these other countries and of course they are gona let them. Its oil!
DaBus Champion Author Washington Posts:1,224 Points:253,320 Joined:Aug 2005	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 8:00:54 AM	Ignore DaBus Report Abuse
	supply and demand.
ursidae3 All-Star Author Orlando Posts:566 Points:307,300 Joined:Sep 2005	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 7:59:27 AM	Ignore ursidae3 Report Abuse
	nothing new/
Matts_Pap All-Star Author Pennsylvania Posts:817 Points:129,195 Joined:Feb 2008	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 7:58:48 AM	Ignore Matts_Pap Report Abuse
	Will Rodgers never met Arjun N. Murti.
papou Champion Author Tampa Posts:2,629 Points:401,270 Joined:Jul 2005	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 7:58:24 AM	Ignore papou Report Abuse
	The Arabs are trying to destroy America economically, and our stupid Congress is letting them.
KellysDad All-Star Author Jackson Posts:980 Points:322,170 Joined:May 2007	Message Posted: 5/22/2008 7:57:46 AM	Ignore KellysDad Report Abuse
	This is the economic equivalent of running into a movie theater and yelling FIRE! It causes panic and hurts a lot of people.